Recent pronouncements by the Central Bank of Cuba regarding the future creation of an official exchange market have generated intense debate. The first reactions were swift, including those of economist Pedro Monreal, who published a series of critical comments on his social media accounts.
Authorities insist that “favorable conditions” already exist for moving toward a formal, orderly, and transparent exchange rate. However, several sectors point out that the announcement offers no operational details and fails to clarify how the State will...cupIt would be about control in an environment dominated by the growing demand for foreign currency.
1/4 What the Central Bank of Cuba should primarily "support" is the stability of the Cuban peso through monetary policy, a sound exchange rate, and international reserves. If it fails to do so, the informal market will "steal its lunch." It's that simple. pic.twitter.com/CEQTHkCymM
— Pedro Monreal (@pmmonreal) November 15, 2025
Central Bank's stance on the informal exchange rate
Granma published an interview with Ian Pedro Carbonell Karell, Director of Macroeconomic Policies at the Central Bank of Cuba. Carbonell defended the need to reinstate an official exchange rate that reflects the “structural reality of the economy” and criticized the reference point used by a large part of the population: informal market rates.
According to the official, the rate cannot be considered valid because it “measures an inherently opaque market.” He added that it is based on “buying and selling intentions,” without verification of actual transactions. In his view, the underlying problem lies in the fact that many economic activities are governed by this benchmark, which generates “distorted expectations” and decisions based on unsupervised data.
The Central Bank asserts that it is working on the operational, technological, and regulatory foundations for “an orderly and functional official foreign exchange market.” It maintains that reducing the fiscal deficit would pave the way for greater monetary stability.
Pedro Monreal's criticism of the official explanation
Pedro Monreal's response came a few hours later. The economist stated that the Central Bank's primary function should be to guarantee the stability of the Cuban peso through monetary policy and international reserves. If it fails to fulfill this role, he wrote, "the informal market will steal its lunch."
Monreal questioned the institution's criticism of "distorted signals" while avoiding showing its own results regarding foreign exchange. He also recalled that in 2020 it was announced that the country had spent a decade studying the design of a formal market. Therefore, he considers it a "mockery" that they now claim the work is only just beginning.
At another point in his thread, he noted that it remains unclear how the Central Bank will be able to exercise effective control under the current conditions. In his view, the authorities are trying to present the process as an extension of monetary reform, even though it doesn't correspond to what was promised in 2021.
A debate marked by key questions
The opposing positions reveal a fundamental conflict: what mechanism can restore credibility to the Cuban peso and how can the escalation of the informal market, which currently accounts for most foreign exchange transactions, be stopped?
The Central Bank argues that the creation of an official market would correct distortions and give convertibility to the CUP and reduce segmentation. Independent economists, however, doubt that this is possible without a real supply of dollars, without sufficient reserves, and without a transparent process explaining how the new rate will be set.
The debate remains open, with a central point shared by actors from different positions: any exchange policy that aspires to work will have to face a consolidated informal market, very widespread and fueled by the very scarcity of foreign currency in state circuits.
Regarding the opinion expressed by economist Pedro Monreal, I ask him how the Bank can stabilize the national currency if the money is in the hands of the self-employed and micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs). One of the reasons for this is that these entities, in order to acquire USD or any other freely convertible currency, are forced to buy said currency on the informal market, and that an institution based outside of Cuba, such as el TOQUEThe exchange rate policy is being dictated from the United States, and above all, with the sole intention of strangling our economy.
We may have inefficiencies, but among el Toque And the financial blockade imposed by the US as a result of putting Cuba on a list of state sponsors of terrorism—who are the real terrorists, and they should be at the top of the list? You never actually get there; you just take things to the extreme.