Atlantic cyclone activity is once again capturing the attention of meteorologists, as a new tropical system is rapidly moving west-northwest. Satellite images show a well-organized structure that continues to gain strength in the open ocean.
The phenomenon continues to move steadily and has already prompted the issuance of alerts on several islands in the eastern Caribbean. Although it is still more than a thousand kilometers from the Lesser Antilles arc, its projected intensification is causing concern throughout the region.
According to U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC)Tropical Storm Jerry was located at 5:00 a.m. Wednesday, October 8, at 13.3 degrees north latitude and 50.7 degrees west longitude, approximately 1435 kilometers east-southeast of the Leeward Islands. It had maximum sustained winds of 85 kilometers per hour and a minimum central pressure of 1003 hectopascals, moving west-northwest at 37 kilometers per hour.
Possible strengthening of Jerry
The forecasts of the NHC Indicates that Jerry will continue moving west-northwestward over the next few days. Its forward speed will gradually decrease. It is expected to turn north-northwestward on Friday and reach hurricane strength within the next 24 hours.
If the current forecast holds, the center of the system is expected to move north of the Lesser Antilles between Thursday and Friday. Tropical winds could reach parts of the islands under tropical storm watch. The areas included in the tropical storm watch are Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat, St. Barthelemy, St. Maarten, Saba, St. Eustatius, and Guadeloupe.
Rain and storm surge in the eastern Caribbean
The NHC warned that between 50 and 100 millimeters of rain could accumulate in the Windward and Leeward Islands on Thursday and Friday. This increases the risk of flash flooding and landslides in mountainous areas.
Likewise, strong waves and rip currents will gradually reach the coasts of the Lesser Antilles. They will then spread northward toward Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. These conditions could become hazardous to navigation and coastal activities.
Five-day trajectory and forecast
The NHC's track cone shows that Jerry will tend to move northward across the Caribbean, with no direct impact on the Greater Antilles in its initial phase. However, the area of influence of storm-force winds extends up to 205 kilometers from the center. Thus, adverse conditions cannot be ruled out in areas close to the storm's axis.
Longer-term, models predict the system will continue to strengthen as it approaches open waters in the western Atlantic, with possible indirect interaction over Bermuda early next week.
Meteorological authorities recommend that residents of the eastern Caribbean stay informed through official advisories, especially on islands under hurricane watch, where Hurricane Jerry's passage could bring heavy rains and significant wind gusts.
